Mauricio Oyarzo Aguilar
Área Economía Aplicada y Evaluación de Impacto
Abstract: Chilean mining municipalities collect a mineral tax to compensate for the negative externalities associated with resource extraction. Although this implies a positive marginal impact on local finance, there is not enough empirical evidence to support that this improves the quality of life in these communities. This article attempts to bridge this knowledge gap via a unique experimental framework, specifically, the Chilean tax system and a mining law that allows certain municipalities above an exogenous threshold to keep the extra income. We use Regression Discontinuity Design to identify the causal effect on public education indicators and our results are robust and show that in the margin that the educational performance of mining municipalities is worse than that of the counterfactuals. In addition, the evidence suggests that despite the resource windfalls of the mining municipalities, it is not clear if these municipalities invest more resources in public education than other localities.
Abstract: Curse resource literature argues that resource windfalls, such as those derived from a price boom commodity crowding-out several determinants of long-term incomes (Papyrakis & Gerlagh, 2006). While empirical evidence tests this theory for inter country contexts, there is not similar attention to explore this hypothesis for subnational governments. This different perspective would reveal how the resource windfalls affect the collection behaviour of subnational governments, or ever more, how the local municipalities would strategically behave for covering the local costs. Thus, any strategic behaviour will directly impact the local community well-being especially due to the key role played by subnational governments to provide local public goods. We contribute to this discussion analysing how the resource windfalls from mining taxes crowds out the local collected revenues such as the residential property tax and commercial property tax by means of the case of Chile. Using a spatial panel data for 345 Chilean municipalities between 2008 and 2017, we pursue the causal effect derived from tax laziness hypothesis measured as the cross substitution between an additional monetary unit received from windfalls. Our results do not reject the hypothesis. We observe that mining taxes crowds out property tax collection. Tax laziness is maintained after considering potential endogeneity and heteroskedasticity imposed by spatial autocorrelation.
Abstract: Despite the efficiency produced by Long Distance Commuting (LDC) as an adjustment mechanism between local labor markets, the impact that it has on the equilibrium of labor markets has not been studied in depth. This paper uses the case of Chile, since in the last two decades the LDC has increased its importance as an strategy of labor mobility for workers in this country. We demonstrate, both theoretically and empirically, that LDC generates wage differences in the labor markets that receive commuters, as a function of the market equilibrium of these workers’ place of origin. These differences are not only related to labor productivity and/or employment, but also to the wage expectations of commuters in their place of origin.
Abstract: Recent studies on Chile agree that the country’s youth enjoy greater social mobility than previous generations. This has been attributed to 2 different causes: greater access to higher education and life cycle effects on occupation. This article aims to test each of the hypotheses by estimating the socioeconomic position of four generations of Chileans over a decade (2006-2015) via CASEN surveys and by using a model of analysis based on the Social Reproduction paradigm. The results show that younger generations of Chileans have a lower level of social inheritance than the rest of the population only during their initial years in the labor market. Therefore, the greater social mobility observed in Chilean youth is temporary and is explained by life cycle effects on occupation.
Abstract: This work analyzes the spatio-temporal persistence of municipal rates of business start-ups in Chile between 2002 and 2013 using the spatial panel from database of the Internal Revenue Service (SII). The analysis uses descriptive statistics, non-parametric tests and econometric models to identify the existence and persistence of spatial clusters of municipalities with high and low levels of start-up rates and to estimate the determinants of the spatio-temporal persistence in entrepreneurship rates. The results confirm the persistence of entrepreneurship in Chile, as well as a high probability of any municipality remaining in the same cluster over time. The main explanatory factors for the persistence of start-up rates are spatially sticky local characteristics such as the participation of the tertiary sector, levels of diversification and urbanization; unobservable characteristics such as culture and institutions, and observable characteristics like past level of entrepreneurial activity of the municipality. These variables reveal distinct effects depending on the level of start-up creation rate of each municipality. The results suggest the need for policies that take into account the spatial differences of entrepreneurial dynamism.
Abstract: En esta investigación se demuestra la importancia de la evaluación de las políticas públicas a nivel regional. Se estudian los programas de subsidio a la contratación de jóvenes (SEJ) y la subvención a la capacitación de trabajadores (CT) sobre el salario y empleo. Primero se indagan resultados a partir de la opinión de agentes claves locales, para luego medir el impacto mediante estimaciones OLS y Logit. Los agentes indican que el impacto de la CT es mayor al SEJ, sin embargo, a partir de la medición se estiman efectos positivos de ambos programas en empleabilidad, siendo mayor con el SEJ; al contrario, la CT impacta en mayores salarios, no así el SEJ.
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